Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/72376
Título: | Time series forecasting using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing: an application to economic data |
Autor(es): | Lima, Susana Gonçalves, A. Manuela Costa, Marco |
Palavras-chave: | Time Series Forecasting Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Economic Data |
Data: | 10-Dez-2019 |
Editora: | The American Institute of Physics (AIP) |
Revista: | AIP Conference Proceedings |
Resumo(s): | This study deals with forecasting economic time series that have strong trends and seasonal patterns. How to best model and forecast these patterns has been a long-standing issue of time series analysis. In this work, we propose a Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing approach to time series forecasting in order to increase the chance of capturing different patterns in the data and thus improve forecasting performance. Therefore, the main propose of this study is to compare the accuracy of Holt-Winters models (additive and multiplicative) for forecasting and to bring new insights about the methods used via this approach. These methods are chosen because of their ability to model trend and seasonal fluctuations present in economic data. The models are fitted to time series of e-commerce retail sales in Portugal. Finally, a comparison is made and discussed. |
Tipo: | Artigo em ata de conferência |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/72376 |
ISBN: | 978-0-7354-1933-9 |
e-ISBN: | 978-0-7354-1933-9 |
DOI: | 10.1063/1.5137999 |
ISSN: | 0094-243X |
Versão da editora: | https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5137999 |
Arbitragem científica: | yes |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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1.5137999.pdf | Time series Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing: an Application to Economic Data | 354,08 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |