Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/66728
Título: | Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: a comparative approach |
Autor(es): | Boukari, Mamadou Veiga, Francisco José |
Palavras-chave: | Fiscal forecasting Opportunism Elections Institutions Local governments France Portugal |
Data: | 2018 |
Editora: | Elsevier 1 |
Revista: | Journal of Comparative Economics |
Citação: | Mamadou Boukari,Francisco Veiga,Disentangling Political and Institutional Determinantsof Budget Forecast Errors: A Comparative Approach, Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 46, Issue 4,December2018, Pages 1030-1045. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2018.03.002 |
Resumo(s): | This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater. |
Tipo: | Artigo |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/66728 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.jce.2018.03.002 |
ISSN: | 0147-5967 |
Versão da editora: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596718300404 |
Arbitragem científica: | yes |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | NIPE - Artigos em Revistas de Circulação Internacional com Arbitragem Científica |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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2018_MB_FV_JCE.pdf | Artigo | 882,76 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |