A scenario building methodology to support the definition of sustainable development strategies : the case of the Azores Region

Abstract

The concept of Sustainable Development implies a discussion about the future in the next 20-50 years. In that regard, a Scenario Building Methodology was developed to encourage an active participation of citizens in the debate of sustainable models. Scenario building is not a forecast neither a future prevision, but, instead, is an exploration of the possible unfolding of events based on current social, economic and environmental drivers. The methodology was applied in Azores Region (Portugal), where five qualitative scenarios for 2030 were discussed in the context of feasibility studies aimed at the definition of a local Sustainable Development Strategy: Hotelandia - a scenario based on tourism development; Lactogenia - a scenario based on agricultural progress; Ecotopia - a scenario based on environmental protection; Sociopolis - a scenario based on social cohesion and; Infocracia – a scenario based on an information society. After an intensive public discussion in several fora, these scenarios were redefined, built and presented for discussion and voting in the project website. An heterogeneous expert panel was also asked to comment on. The results obtained during this process indicate that scenario building is an interesting bridge between citizens and decision makers, helping to identify present critical branch points for a sustainable future.