Term limits at the local government level: evidence from a natural experiment

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of term limits at the local government level, using the Portuguese case as a natural experiment. Term limits became binding in the 2013 municipal elections, forcing 52% of the incumbent mayors to step down. The effects of this institutional change are studied using a differences-in-differences approach, on a sample comprising all Portuguese municipalities, from 1998 to 2013, and detailed data on local finances and municipal and mayor characteristics. The results indicate some benefits of term limits, such as the mitigation of the opportunistic manipulation of local finances, which has been more prevalent among more experienced eligible mayors.