Multicriteria scenario analysis on electricity production

Abstract

Energy planning is a complex process involving multiple and conflicting objectives with many agents able to influence decisions. This complexity is frequently addressed with the use of multicriteria tools, relying on a set of criteria and different methods to aggregate all the information in a final ranking of the available alternatives. This paper describes the application of a multicriteria decision tool for the analysis of Portuguese electricity scenarios. A set of criteria is proposed aiming to include social, economic, environmental and technical aspects. Criteria weighting was directly addressed considering 5 approaches: equitable weights, financial, technological, social and environmental perspectives. Results indicate that close to 100% RES scenario is the best option under a social perspective, base scenario represents the best option on a technical approach and scenarios relying on natural gas and wind power units are the best options for the electricity system under equitable weights, economic and environmental approaches.