Future scenarios for Fusarium wilt disease and mortality of oil palm in Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon, extrapolated to Malaysia and Indonesia

Abstract

The significance of palm oil is high in Africa and South East Asia. Malaysia and Indonesia are the largest producers. Increased mortality and diseases of oil palm are likely to occur with climate change. Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. elaeidis (Foe) is strongly associated with causing Fusarium wilt disease of oil palm in Africa where acute and chronic forms are observed. The disease in Malaysia and Indonesia is controlled by quarantine procedures, which could lapse. The effects of future climate on oil palm mortality and Fusarium wilt disease from current time to 2100 are reported herein for Nigeria, Ghana and Cameroon and the data are used to provide scenarios for Malaysia and Indonesia. Nigeria and Ghana were the least and Cameroon the most affected by the disease of the African countries. Malaysia and Indonesia were similar in terms of disease progression and intermediate between Nigeria/Ghana and Cameroon after 2050. Highest incidence of disease was determined for Cameroon of the African countries. Malaysia and Indonesia had similar disease incidences which were between those of Nigeria/Ghana and Cameroon in value. High oil palm mortalities were determined for Cameroon. The data can be assessed to determine if they conform to what occurs in the future, assuming no change to climate change progression and amelioration. Mitigation of the effects of climate change are required urgently and quarantine procedures need optimizing to reduce future oil palm mortality and Fusarium wilt in oil palm plantations.