Economics, popularity and vote intentions in Portugal : a longitudinal analysis with aggregate data

Abstract

The present article analyzes the impact of economics on incumbent politicians’ popularity and on the vote intentions of the Portuguese. Empirical results suggest that: (1) Portuguese voters hold incumbent politicians responsible for the evolution of the economy, particularly for unemployment; (2) right-wing oriented governments are held more responsible than left-wing ones for inflation; (3) the evaluation of incumbents’ performance is mainly retrospective. Results also reveal that the popularity of governments/parties depends on their leader’s personality, that popularity decreases over consecutive terms in office and that incumbents benefit from a honeymoon period with the electorate immediately after elections.