Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470
Título: | Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending? |
Autor(es): | Agnello, Luca Castro, Vítor Sousa, Ricardo M. |
Palavras-chave: | Fiscal consolidations Duration analysis Weibull Model Duration dependence Change-points |
Data: | 2012 |
Resumo(s): | Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behavior of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures. |
Tipo: | Documento de trabalho |
URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/22470 |
Arbitragem científica: | no |
Acesso: | Acesso aberto |
Aparece nas coleções: | NIPE - Documentos de Trabalho |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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NIPE_WP_18_2012.pdf | Documento principal | 468,92 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |