Foreign direct investment with tax holidays and policy uncertainty

Abstract

We study foreign direct investment agreements that entitle firms to a lower tax rate during a tax holiday period. Our model considers both finite and uncertain tax holiday period settings. We show that the tax holiday duration may have, for small tax rate reductions, a nonmonotonic effect on the investment timing. For sufficiently high tax reductions, a longer tax holiday speeds up investment. A higher tax reduction during the tax holiday and a lower uncertainty are shown to have a monotonic effect on the threshold, hastening investment. However, in case of a finite tax holiday, for exceptional high salvage values, a higher uncertainty can speed up investment. We show the usefulness of our model to design an optimal incentives package that prompts investment.