Older people living alone: a predictive model of fall risk

Abstract

Falls in older people are a result of a combination of multiple risk factors. There are few studies involving predictive models in a community context. The aim of this study was to determine the validation of a new model for predicting fall risk in older adults (65+) living alone in community dwellings (n = 186; n = 117) with a test–retest reliability study. We consider in the predictive model the significant factors emerged from the bivariate analysis: age, zone, social community resources, physical exercise, self-perception of health, difficulty to keep standing, difficulty to sit and get up from a chair, strain to see, use of technical devices, hypertension and number of medications. The final model explained 28.5% of the risk of falling in older adults living alone in community dwellings. The AUC = 0.660 (se = 0.065, IC 95% 0.533–0.787, p = 0.017). The predictive model developed revealed a satisfactory discriminatory performance of the model and can contribute to clinical practice, with respect to the evaluation of risk of falling in this frailty group and preventing falls.