Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo:
https://hdl.handle.net/1822/87991
Registo completo
Campo DC | Valor | Idioma |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Pereira, F. Catarina | por |
dc.contributor.author | Gonçalves, A. Manuela | por |
dc.contributor.author | Costa, Marco | por |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-01-09T09:49:05Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2024-01-09T09:49:05Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2023 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1436-3240 | por |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1822/87991 | - |
dc.description.abstract | In the context of "TO CHAIR'' project, this work aims to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts of maximum air temperature obtained from the https://weatherstack.com/ website. The proposed methodology is based on a state-space representation that incorporates the latent process, the state, which is estimated recursively using the Kalman filter. The proposed model linearly and stochastically relates the forecasts from the website (as a covariate) to the observations of the maximum temperature recorded at the study site. The specification of the state-space model is performed using the maximum likelihood method under the assumption of normality of errors, where empirical confidence intervals are presented. In addition, this work also presents a treatment of outliers based on the ratios between the observed maximum temperature and the website forecasts. | por |
dc.description.sponsorship | This work has received funding from FEDER/COMPETE/NORTE 2020/POCI/FCT funds through Grants UID/ EEA/-00147/20 13/UID/IEEA/00147/006933-SYSTEC project and To CHAIR - POCI-01-0145-FEDER-028247. A. Manuela Gonc¸alves was partially financed by Portuguese Funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) within the Projects UIDB/00013/2020 and UIDP/00013/2020 of CMAT-UM. Marco Costa was partially supported by The Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA) through the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia), references UIDB/04106/2020 and UIDP/04106/2020. F. Catarina Pereira was financed by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) through the individual PhD research Grant UI/BD/150967/2021 of CMAT-UM | por |
dc.language.iso | eng | por |
dc.publisher | Springer | por |
dc.relation | UID/EEA/-00147/20 | por |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00013%2F2020/PT | por |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00013%2F2020/PT | por |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04106%2F2020/PT | por |
dc.relation | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F04106%2F2020/PT | por |
dc.relation | 13/UID/IEEA/00147/006933-SYSTEC | por |
dc.relation | POCI-01-0145-FEDER-028247 | por |
dc.rights | openAccess | por |
dc.subject | State-space models | por |
dc.subject | Temperature | por |
dc.subject | Kalman filter | por |
dc.subject | Time series | por |
dc.subject | Data assimilation | por |
dc.title | Short-term forecast improvement of maximum temperature by state-space model approach: the study case of the TO CHAIR project | por |
dc.type | article | - |
dc.peerreviewed | yes | por |
dc.relation.publisherversion | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-022-02290-3 | por |
oaire.citationStartPage | 219 | por |
oaire.citationEndPage | 231 | por |
oaire.citationIssue | 1 | por |
oaire.citationVolume | 37 | por |
dc.date.updated | 2024-01-02T16:50:42Z | - |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s00477-022-02290-3 | por |
dc.subject.wos | Science & Technology | - |
sdum.export.identifier | 12977 | - |
sdum.journal | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) | por |
Aparece nas coleções: | CMAT - Artigos em revistas com arbitragem / Papers in peer review journals |
Ficheiros deste registo:
Ficheiro | Descrição | Tamanho | Formato | |
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s00477-022-02290-3.pdf | 957 kB | Adobe PDF | Ver/Abrir |