Students’ expectations of the economic returns to college education : results of a controlled experiment

Abstract

We report the results of an experiment designed to elicit students’ subjective beliefs about the economic returns to college education. An important feature of our experimental design is the inclusion of financial incentives for accu- rate reporting. We also consider the extent to which individuals’ beliefs about their own returns differ from their beliefs about the returns for others. The evidence shows that students do have a self-enhancement tendency, and this finding cannot be attributed to previously uncontrolled order effects. The evidence also indicates that there is no sig- nificant difference between beliefs elicited using hypothetical surveys or real financial incentives in the elicitation pro- cedure. This finding suggests that economists’ reluctance to gather subjective data on earnings expectations may not be warranted.