Assessing long-term fiscal developments : evidence from Portugal

Abstract

We use a 3SLS method and a system of equations to recursively estimate two components of fiscal policy – responsiveness and persistence – and to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Using quarterly data, the results suggest that: (i) government spending exhibits higher persistence than government revenue; and (ii) government revenue is more responsive to the business cycle than government spending, pointing to fiscal deterioration issues.